Late Line Movement NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:
We’re a week into December, and the NFL playoffs are on the horizon. With just about a month left in the season, division titles and playoff spots are in the process of being clinched and draft order established, which is important to note from a betting perspective down the stretch of the season because knowing which teams are more incentivized to win (or lose, for that matter) will be pivotal to account for, in addition to using my T Shoe Index as a numbers guide. I gave out a couple of plays I like on Wednesday, and I’m back with a couple more today to keep the momentum rolling in NFL Week 14.Los Angeles Chargers (+4; 42.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have only lost one game. That is a fact; however, from a power rating perspective, they leave a lot to be desired. I saw one prominent analytics guy on X call them “the luckiest team in the league” from a post-game win expectancy standpoint. This creates value betting against them. I project the Chiefs as just 2.5-point favorites in this game, so getting above the key number of 3 in the NFL is massive. We’re also getting the hook plus the secondary key number of 4, so that’s a great bet. Offensively, the Chiefs are just 13th in TSI, going against the second-rated defense of LA; on the flip side, KC’s eighth-rated defense will get a more favorable matchup against the 19th-rated offense of the Chargers. All in all, I expect this game to be a low-scoring field goal contest decided by 3 or less.NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Chargers +4 (Play to +3.5)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5; 44.5)
As you know, if you’ve been following me for any extended period of time, I’m not the kind of guy who pigeonholes teams as Under or Over teams; I merely play the numbers. That said, if there’s such a thing as an Under team, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. They’re 7-4-1 to the Under, doing so by over 3 points per game this season. Over the last five games, they’re scoring 24 points per game but only allowing 15.5; combine that with the Seattle Seahawks’ last five games where they’re averaging just 18.5 and allowing just 19, and you’ve got a recipe for an Under. I project this total at 40, so even though the line has ticked down this week, I’d still play it above 44.NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Under 44.5 (Play to 44)
